BitBitCoin

Can the Crowd Predict Bitcoin’s True Value?

In a world of cryptocurrency volatility, one question remains: What is Bitcoin REALLY worth?

The Power of Collective Wisdom 

In 1906, statistician Francis Galton made a remarkable discovery at the West of England Fat Stock Exhibition. When 787 people guessed the weight of a prize steer

While individual guesses varied widely – The actual weight was 1,198 pounds – The average guess was an astonishing 1,197 pounds, nearly perfect!

This phenomenon now known as “the wisdom of crowds” demonstrates how collective intelligence can outperform individual experts.

Your Prediction Matters

Today, we’re applying this same principle to determine Bitcoin’s true value. Use the three sliders below to predict the Bitcoin price!

Submit your prediction and get access to our live prediction graph showing the crowd’s consensus & See how your predictions compare with hundreds of other participants

👉 Use the three sliders below to predict the Bitcoin price!

Bitcoin Value Estimator

V1. How likely do you think that bitcoin will be recognized by the general public as a mainstream value storage system?
1%
V2. How much of your total net worth are you comfortable with to invest in bitcoin?
1%
V3. Do you want to inlude Derivatives* for the Global Wealth number? Inlude for (0% to 100%):
0% $432T
Your Estimated Bitcoin value is:
$0

Formula:

  • Bitcoin Value = (V1 * V2 * V3) / minedBTC

*What are derivatives?

  • The total derivatives value represents the ‘notional value’ of all derivatives contracts worldwide, not their actual market value. This needs context: Notional value refers to the total value of the underlying assets, not the cost of the derivative contracts themselves. For example: if you buy an option contract on 100 shares of a $50 stock, the notional value would be $5,000 (100 × $50), but you might only pay $200 for the option contract itself. This is the key difference between notional value and actual market value.

Sources:

Bitcoin Info:

  • Already Mined Bitcoins: 20290087.5 (Max 21 million)
  • Actual Bitcoin price: BTC Price: $69104.13
  • Total value crypto: $2,359,049,009,095.36
  • Bitcoin cryptomarket share: 58.49%

FAQ